Bubble

An economic bubble is a phenomenon in markets created by herd mentality, whereby people hear stories of others who bought in early and made big profits, causing those who did not buy to feel a fear of missing out. This causes irrational pricing of the asset which proceeds until the mania subsides.

Attempting to time the market on bubbles is a zero-sum game and has a negative expected return.

Historical bubbles:

  • South Sea Bubble
  • Beanie Baby Bubble
  • London Rail Bubble
  • Tulip Mania
  • Dot-com Bubble
  • Japanese Real Estate Bubble
  • Crypto asset Bubble

See "madness of crowds", market mania and bandwagon bias.

References

  1. Mackay, Charles. 2012. Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. Simon and Schuster.
  2. Bernstein, William J. 2021. The Delusions of Crowds: Why People Go Mad in Groups. Grove Press.
  3. Blanchard, Olivier J, and Mark W Watson. 1982. ‘Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial Markets’. NBER Working Paper, no. w0945.
  4. Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. 2021. ‘Bitcoin, Currencies, and Fragility’. ArXiv:2106.14204 [Physics, q-Fin], July. http://arxiv.org/abs/2106.14204.
  5. Caferra, Rocco, Gabriele Tedeschi, and Andrea Morone. 2021. ‘Bitcoin: Bubble That Bursts or Gold That Glitters?’ Economics Letters 205: 109942. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109942.
  6. Andrés, Pablo de, David Arroyo, Ricardo Correia, and Alvaro Rezola. 2022. ‘Challenges of the Market for Initial Coin Offerings’. International Review of Financial Analysis 79: 101966. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101966.
  7. Corradi, Fiammetta, and Philipp Höfner. 2018. ‘The Disenchantment of Bitcoin: Unveiling the Myth of a Digital Currency’. International Review of Sociology 28 (1): 193–207. https://doi.org/10.1080/03906701.2018.1430067.
  8. Cembalest, Michael. 2022. ‘The Maltese Falcoin: On Cryptocurrencies and Blockchains’. https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-wm-aem/global/pb/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/the-maltese-falcoin.pdf.
  9. Shri T Rabi Sankar. n.d. ‘Cryptocurrencies – An Assessment’. Reserve Bank of India. Accessed 2 March 2022. https://rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_SpeechesView.aspx?Id=1196.
  10. Chancellor, Edward. 1999. ‘Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation’.
  11. Demmler, Michael, and Amilcar Orlian Fernández Domínguez. 2021. ‘Bitcoin and the South Sea Company: A Comparative Analysis’. Revista Finanzas y Política Económica 13 (1): 197–224.
  12. Kolchinski, Alex. 2022. ‘Crypto Is an Unproductive Bubble’. Alex Kolchinski (blog). 18 March 2022. https://alexkolchinski.com/2022/03/18/crypto-is-an-unproductive-bubble/.
  13. Smales, L. A. 2022. ‘Investor Attention in Cryptocurrency Markets’. International Review of Financial Analysis 79: 101972. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101972.
  14. Zetzsche, Dirk A, Ross P Buckley, Douglas W Arner, and Linus Föhr. 2017. ‘The ICO Gold Rush: It’s a Scam, It’s a Bubble, It’s a Super Challenge for Regulators’. University of Luxembourg Law Working Paper, no. 11: 17–83.
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